Defence operations and the call under fire

Wargaming has evolved from simply diagnosing weaknesses to generating actionable, cross-sectoral strategies. "Preparedness wargaming," such as the Taiwan Digital Blockade Wargame, uses structured gameplay and facilitated dialogue to explore collaborative solutions for protecting critical information and communications infrastructure during a geopolitical conflict.

Similarly, massive live-fire exercises like NATO's Locked Shields provide unmatched environments for modeling Defensive Cyber Operations (DCO). In these exercises, Blue Teams defend national IT systems against real-time attacks by a Red Team. Unlike isolated security incidents, these wargames use time compression, strict rules of engagement, and scoring mechanisms to force rapid decision-making and allow for the post-game comparison of different team strategies.

• •Structured gameplay for cross-sectoral infrastructure protection
• •Blue vs. Red team DCO with time compression and scoring
• •Post-game comparison of team strategies and decision paths

Wargames use language models to stand in for the cognitive domain next to land, sea, air, space, and cyber.

• •CW-BRAINWARE: multi-domain wargaming (land, sea, air, space, cyberspace) with a Message Manager for true or deceptive information via broadcast, print, and social media - LLMs model emotional, psychological, and sociopolitical responses of virtual troops and civilian populations
• •Virtual Humans: generative AI avatars (skeptical board members, hostile journalists, panicked subordinates) scale wargames with consistent, standardized resistance without high human roleplayer costs

The psychological engine driving these wargames is "cognitive load." By exposing leaders to information saturation, ambiguity, and high-velocity crises, simulations stretch the brain's processing capacity to its limits.

The goal of this intense pressure is to stress-test a leader's cognitive OODA (Observe-Orient-Decide-Act) loop and see if learned behaviors collapse into innate, reactive instincts.

• •Cyber Siege scenarios: rapid high-stakes trade-offs (e.g. ransom payment vs. funding criminal syndicates) with incomplete information
• •Digital body language: decision speed, hesitation, information consumption patterns, and biometrics like heart-rate variability
• •Anti-fragility: identify orientation coherence and decision tempo vulnerabilities before real-world exploitation

By observing participants in environments like Locked Shields, researchers have mapped how effective leaders manage cognitive overload. Successful DCO leaders operate using a dual-process model:

• •Primary process: executing and evolving the pre-designed mission plan using traditional operational leadership and preparation
• •Secondary process: dynamically responding to unplanned, adversary-caused events - requiring rapid intuition, low-hierarchy mission command, and real-time sharing of Cyber Situational Awareness (CSA) and Cyber Threat Intelligence (CTI)